دانلود کتاب Natural Hazards and Environmental Change

The authors are from the Benfield Grieg Hazard Research Centre and the Dept. of Space and Climate Physics (all University College London). The book has been published in 2002, and is therefore heavily based on the results of the 3rd assessment report of 2001 by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), who upgraded their temperature rise forecasts to 8 degrees Celcius by the end of the century. The natural hazards in this book are described in the light of IPCC's forecasts.

The book is very readable (thanks to the clear writing, a transparent outline and a summary at the start of each chapter).

Windstorms are described to anthropogenic climate change and are shown to have the potential for large changes for relatively small changes in the general climate. Its natural patterns of climate variability are presented, amongst which ENSO, NAO, and PNA (Pacific North American teleconnection). The latest studies are presented which try to observe and predict the frequency and severity of extreme windstorms on a spatial and temporal scale.

River and coastal floods under global warming are examined. Most research on river floods has concentrated on changes in observed precipitation and prediction methods, but the authors also present non-climatic factors involving human influences on the river basin. Coastal flooding from tropical and extratropical storms under sea level change is investigated, as well as sea temperature changes (heat - and cold waves).

The 1999 Venezuela landslides, causing 50 000 fatalities, have put this undervalued natural hazard on the agenda again. The authors concentrate on the water accumulation below the surface of unstable slopes. The landslide's rheological properties (which resist the movement) are studied under environmental change.

Sea level change is discussed under the uncertainties of response to warming of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and the effect of CO2 gas mitigation in the coming decades. The effect of sea level rise on submarine landslides and as a consequence ocean-wide tsunami is analysed. Coastal erosion and other geomorphological effects of sea level rise are left out here.

A very interesting chapter on asteroid and comet impacts as initiator of environmental change is included in the book. Time domain simulations of a 20km/s impact in a 4 km deep ocean are presented (and comparable to the Deep Impact scenario (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120647/)).

The book ends with some results from a recent paper in Science (v 289, p 2068-74, DR Easterling et al) on different forecasts of climate extremes. The authors plead for political will from industrialised countries such as USA, Japan and Australia to invert their increase in gas emissions before the hazardous aspects of climatic shift make themselves felt.