دانلود کتاب The lady tasting tea: how statistics revolutionized science

In the 1840s, astronomers used Newton’s mathematical laws to predict the existence of another planet. And Neptune was discovered--right where it was supposed to be. For the first time, the universe seemed to make sense. It ran like a clock and scientists understood the mechanics perfectly. But errors began to mount, and by the end of the nineteenth century the clockwork universe had broken down. Gradually, a new paradigm arose in its place—the statistical model of reality. In THE LADY TASTING TEA, David Salsburg tells the fascinating story of how statistics has revolutionized science in the twentieth century. Leading the reader through a maze of randomness and probability, the author clearly explains the nature of statistical models, where they came from, how they are applied to scientific problems, and whether they are true descriptions of reality. Salsburg also discusses the flaws inherent in a statistical model and the serious problems they’ve created for scientists as we enter the twenty-first century. Written for the layperson, THE LADY TASTING TEA contains no mathematical formulas. It does contain short, easily digestible chapters, each one built around one of the men or women who participated in the statistical revolution. While readers will not learn enough to engage in statistical analysis (that requires several years of graduate study) they will come away with some understanding of the basic philosophy behind the statistical view of science. And to start, we meet a lady tasting tea . . .Amazon.com Review Science is inextricably linked with mathematics. Statistician David Salsburg examines the development of ever-more-powerful statistical methods for determining scientific truth in The Lady Tasting Tea, a series of historical and biographical sketches that illuminate without alienating the mathematically timid. Salsburg, who has worked in academia and industry and has met many of the major players he writes about, shares his subjects' enthusiasm for problem solving and deep thinking. His sense of excitement drives the prose, but never at the expense of the reader; if anything, the author has taken pains to eliminate esoterica and ephemera from his stories. This might frustrate a few number-head readers, but the abundant notes and references should keep them happy in the library for weeks after reading the book. Ultimately, the various tales herein are unified in a single theme: the conversion of science from observational natural history into rigorously defined statistical models of data collection and analysis. This process, usually only implicit in studies of scientific methods and history, is especially important now that we seem to be reaching the point of diminishing returns and are looking for new paradigms of scientific investigation. The Lady Tasting Tea will appeal to a broad audience of scientifically literate readers, reminding them of the humanity underlying the work. --Rob Lightner