دانلود کتاب The Essential Herman Kahn: In Defense of Thinking

It is very difficult to take the work of a prolific, wide-ranging, and influential author and choose and compile a representative sampling of their work in only 260 pages, but Aligica and Weinstein have managed the daunting task. Much of Herman Kahn's once controversial work and methodologies have become such an integral part of modern discourse, or in the case of futurist work, come to pass with uncanny accuracy, that it is well worth taking a moment to understand these roots, often unrecognized and uncredited. In addition, Aligica and Weinstein, through their choices, have revealed consistent threads and concepts often obscured by the sheer mass of Herman Kahn's output. They have also restrained themselves from comment and interpretation, allowing the chosen samples to speak for themselves. It is to be hoped that the book revives interest in a thinker and author, much of whose work is still applicable (frighteningly so in the case of his nuclear war work) decades after his death.

Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling states in his foreword to the recently re-released ON ESCALATION by Kahn,
"I know of no better preparation for future nuclear dangers than this book.
It's forty-five years old but is a classic that will never be out of date.
I recommend it not only to those who, were it 1965, would find it essential
in thinking about the most dangerous issues in international affairs, but to
those in a dozen or more nations now to whom nuclear weapons are a new
concern and preoccupation.
This is a genuine classic that, I'm afraid, will never be out of date."

As a futurist Kahn's predictions, often deemed overly optimistic, foolish or controversial at the time, have come to pass with such phenomenal accuracy that it is difficult for most people to presently imagine they were once considered shocking and unlikely. And the methodologies he developed for thinking about the future, or any issue, are cornerstones of all modern future studies.

It is always worthwhile to study the work of men with a commitment to thinking; to clear, impartial thought applied to the most critical issues of the day. "In defense of thinking" is an appropriate sub-title.
Thank you Aligica and Weinstein for a job well done.