دانلود کتاب Improving Natural Resource Management: Ecological and Political Models

The decision to implement environmental protection options is a political one. These, and other political and social decisions affect the balance of the ecosystem and how the point of equilibrium desired is to be reached. This book develops a stochastic, temporal model of how political processes influence and are influenced by ecosystem processes and looks at how to find the most politically feasible plan for managing an at-risk ecosystem. Finding such a plan is accomplished by first fitting a mechanistic political and ecological model to a data set composed of observations on both political actions that impact an ecosystem and variables that describe the ecosystem. The parameters of this fitted model are perturbed just enough to cause human behaviour to change so that desired ecosystem states occur. This perturbed model gives the ecosystem management plan needed to reach desired ecosystem states. To construct such a set of interacting models, topics from political science, ecology, probability, and statistics are developed and explored. Key features:Explores politically feasible ways to manage at-risk ecosystems. Gives agent-based models of how social groups affect ecosystems through time. Demonstrates how to fit models of population dynamics to mixtures of wildlife data. Presents statistical methods for fitting models of group behaviour to political action data. Supported by an accompanying website featuring datasets and JAVA code. This book will be useful to managers and analysts working in organizations charged with finding practical ways to sustain biodiversity or the physical environment. Furthermore this book also provides a political roadmap to help lawmakers and administrators improve institutional environmental management decision making.Content: Chapter 1 Introduction (pages 1–13): Chapter 2 Simulator Architecture, Operation, and Example Output (pages 15–26): Chapter 3 Blue Whale Population Management (pages 27–42): Chapter 4 Finding the Most Practical Ecosystem Management Plan (pages 43–58): Chapter 5 An Open, Web?Based Ecosystem Management Tool (pages 59–78): Chapter 6 Influence Diagrams of Political Decision Making (pages 79–95): Chapter 7 Group IDs for the East African Cheetah EMT (pages 97–108): Chapter 8 Modeling Wildlife Population Dynamics with an Influence Diagram (pages 109–121): Chapter 9 Political Action Taxonomies, Collection Protocols, and an Actions History Example (pages 123–142): Chapter 10 Ecosystem Data (pages 143–160): Chapter 11 Statistical Fitting of the Political–Ecological System Simulator (pages 161–177): Chapter 12 Assessing the Simulator's Reliability and Improving its Construct Validity (pages 179–199): Chapter 13 Current Capabilities and Limitations of the Politically Realistic EMT (pages 201–208):