دانلود کتاب Climate change : biological and human aspects

Introduction --Acknowledgements --1. An introduction to climate change --1.1. Weather or climate --1.2. The greenhouse effect --1.3. The carbon cycle --1.4. Natural changes in the carbon cycle --1.5. Pacemaker of the glacial-interglacial cycles --1.6. Non-greenhouse influences on climate --1.7. The water cycle, climate change and biology --1.8. From theory to reality --1.9. References --2. Principal indicators of past climates --2.1. Terrestrial biotic climatic proxies --2.1.1. Tree-ring analysis (dendrochronology) --2.1.2. Isotopic dendrochronology --2.1.3. Leaf shape (morphology) --2.1.4. Leaf physiology --2.1.5. Pollen and spore analysis --2.1.6. Species as climate proxies --2.2. Marine biotic climatic proxies --2.2.1. ¹⁸O isotope analysis of forams and corals --2.2.2. Alkenone analysis --2.3. Non-biotic indicators --2.3.1. Isotopic analysis of water --2.3.2. Boreholes --2.3.3. Carbon dioxide and methane records as palaeoclimatic forcing agents --2.3.4. Dust as an indicator of dry-wet hemispheric climates --2.4. Other indicators --2.5. Interpreting indicators --2.6. Conclusions --2.7. References --3. Past climate change --3.1. Early biology and climate of the Hadean and Archeaen eons (4.6-2.5 billion years ago, bya) --3.1.1. The pre-biotic Earth (4.6-3.8 bya) --3.1.2. The early biotic Earth (3.8-2.3 bya) --3.2. Major bio-climatic events of the Proterozoic eon (2.5-0.542 bya) --3.2.1. Earth in the anaerobic-aerobic transition (2.6-1.7 bya) --3.2.2. The aerobic Earth (from 1.7 bya) --3.3. Major bio-climatic events of the pre-Quaternary Phanerozoic (540-2 mya) --3.3.1. Late-Ordovician extinction (455-435 mya) --3.3.2. Late-Devonian extinction (365-363.5 mya) --3.3.3. Vascular plants and the atmospheric depletion of carbon dioxide (350-275 mya) --3.3.4. Permo-Carboniferous glaciation (330-250 mya) --3.3.5. End-Permian extinction (251 mya) --3.3.6. End-Triassic extinction (205 mya) --3.3.7. Toarcian (early (late lower) Jurassic) extinction (183 mya) --3.3.8. Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction (65.5 mya) --3.3.9. Eocene climatic maximum (55-54.8 mya) --3.3.10. Eocene-Oligocene extinction (approximately 35 mya ; or 33.9 mya?) --3.3.11. Late Miocene expansion of C₄ grasses (14-9 mya) --3.4. Summary --3.5. References --4. The Oligocene to the Quaternary : climate and biology --4.1. The Oligocene (33.9-23.03 mya) --4.2. The end Miocene (9-5.3 mya) --4.3. The Pliocene (5.3-1.8 mya) --4.4. The current ice age --4.5. The last glacial --4.5.1. Overview of temperature, carbon dioxide and timing --4.5.2. Ice and sea level --4.5.3. Temperature changes within the glacial --4.5.4. Biological and environmental impacts of the last glacial --4.6. Interglacials and the present climate --4.6.1. Previous interglacials --4.6.2. The Allerød, Bølling and Younger Dryas (14 600-11 600 years ago) --4.6.3. The Holocene (11 500 years ago, the Industrial Revolution) --4.6.4. Biological response to the last glacial, LGM and Holocene transition --4.7. Summary --4.8. References --5. Present climate and biological change --5.1. Recent climate change --5.1.1. The latter half of the Little Ice Age --5.1.2. Twentieth-century climate --5.1.3. Twenty-first-century climate --5.1.4. The Holocene interglacial beyond the twenty-first century --5.1.5. Holocene summary --5.2. Human change arising from the Holocene climate --5.2.1. Climatic impacts on early human civilisations --5.2.2. The Little Ice Age's human impact --5.2.3. Increasing twentieth-century human climatic insulation --5.3. Climate and business as usual in the twenty-first century --5.3.1. IPCC business as usual --5.3.2. Uncertainties and the IPCC's conclusions --5.4. Current human influences on the carbon cycle --5.4.1. Carbon dioxide --5.4.2. Methane --5.4.3. Halocarbons --5.4.4. Nitrous oxide --5.5. References --6. Current warming and likely future impacts --6.1. Current biological symptoms of warming --6.1.1. Current boreal dendrochronological response --6.1.2. Current tropical-rainforest response --6.1.3. Some biological dimensions of the climatic-change fingerprint --6.1.4. Phenology --6.1.5. Biological communities and species shift --6.2. Case study : climate and natural systems in the USA --6.3. Case study : climate and natural systems in the UK --6.4. Biological response to greenhouse trends beyond the twenty-first century --6.5. Possible surprise responses to greenhouse trends in the twenty-first century and beyond --6.5.1. Extreme weather events --6.5.2. Greenhouse gases --6.5.3. Sea-level rise --6.5.4. Methane hydrates (methane clathrates) --6.5.5. Volcanoes --6.5.6. Oceanic and atmospheric circulation --6.5.7. Ocean acidity --6.5.8. The probability of surprises --6.6. References --7. The human ecology of climate change --7.1. Population (past, present and future) and its environmental impact --7.1.1. Population and environmental impact --7.1.2. Past and present population --7.1.3. Future population --7.1.4. Food --7.1.5. Impact on other species --7.2. Energy supply --7.2.1. Energy supply, the historical context --7.2.2. Future energy supply --7.3. Human health and climate change --7.3.1. Health and weather extremes --7.3.2. Climate change and disease --7.3.3. Flooding and health --7.3.4. Droughts --7.4. Climate change and food security --7.4.1. Past and present food security --7.4.2. Future food security and climate change --7.5. The biology of reducing anthropogenic climate change --7.5.1. Terrestrial photosynthesis and soil carbon --7.5.2. Manipulating marine photosynthesis --7.5.3. Biofuels --7.6. Summary and conclusions --7.7. References --8. Sustainability and policy --8.1. Key developments of sustainability policy --8.1.1. UN Conference on the Human Environment (1972) --8.1.2. The Club of Rome's Limits to Growth (1972) --8.1.3. World Climate Conference (1979) --8.1.4. The World Conservation Strategy (1980 ) --8.1.5. The Brandt Report, Common Crisis North-South (1980) --8.1.6. The Brundtland, World Commission on Environment and Development Report (1987) --8.1.7. United Nations' Conference on the Environment and Development, Rio de Janeiro (1992) --8.1.8. The Kyoto Protocol (1997) --8.1.9. Johannesburg Summit, UNCED+10 (2002) --8.1.10. Post 2002 --8.2. Energy sustainability and carbon (global) --8.2.1. Prospects for savings from changes in land use --8.2.2. Prospects for savings from improvements in energy efficiency --8.2.3. Prospects for fossil-carbon savings from renewable energy --8.2.4. Prospects for carbon-capture technology --8.2.5. Prospects for nuclear options --8.2.6. Overall prospects for fossil-carbon savings to 2025 --8.3. Energy policy and carbon --8.3.1. Case history : USA --8.3.2. Case history : UK --8.3.3. Case history : China and India --8.4. Possible future energy options --8.4.1. Managing fossil-carbon emissions, the scale of the problem --8.4.2. Fossil futures --8.4.3. Nuclear futures --8.4.4. Renewable futures --8.4.5. Low-energy futures --8.4.6. Possible future energy options and greenhouse gases --8.5. Future human and biological change --8.5.1. The ease and difficulty of adapting to future impacts --8.5.2. Future climate change and human health --8.5.3. Future climate and human-ecology implications for wildlife --8.5.4. Reducing future anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions --8.5.5. A final conclusion --8.6. References --Appendix 1 : Glossary and abbreviations --Glossary --Abbreviations --Appendix 2 : Bio-geological chronology --Appendix 3 : Calculations of energy demand/supply and orders of magnitude --Calculations of energy demand/supply --Orders of magnitude --Sources --Appendix 4 : The IPCC 2007 report.